Resumo: O modelo Teórico - Sistêmico de Análise de Processos (STPA) é utilizado para análise de perigos e prevenção da ocorrência de acidentes, baseado no pensamento sistêmico e identificação de cenários causais, idealizado pela professora Nancy Leveson do Instituto de Tecnologia de Massachusetts (MIT). O objetivo deste artigo é realizar uma análise bibliométrica e de patentes do modelo STPA. Sendo a bibliometria uma importante ferramenta na análise da produção científica, utiliza-se deste método de forma Estatística descritiva, para fins deste estudo foi dado destaque aos conceitos da Teoria Epidêmica de Goffman, sob uma análise principalmente qualitativa, para estudo de declínio e ascensão deste método no meio científico. Para a análise bibliométrica foram utilizadas como base de dados a página principal da Professora Nancy Leveson no site do MIT e sites de pesquisa científica, dentre eles: Web of Science, Mendeley, ResearchGate, Engineering Village e Scientific Electronic Library Online (SciELO). Para o levantamento de patentes as bases de pesquisa utilizadas foram Derwent, IHS e Orbit. Definindo como termo de busca “Systems Theoretic Process Analysis” e “STPA”, buscado no título, resumo e palavras-chave. No total foram encontradas 171 publicações (1990 a 2017), sendo 89 referências específicas do modelo STPA (2002 a 2017), abordando diversos assuntos como: definições, passos, complementos ao modelo, áreas de aplicação e utilização do modelo em conjunto com outra ferramenta de análise de risco. Ao final deste artigo são destacados os primeiros trabalhos do modelo STPA, ferramentas de apoio e análises, servindo como base e favorecimento trabalhos futuros.

Abstract: The Systemic Theoretical Process Analysis (STPA) model is used for hazard analysis and accident prevention, based on systemic thinking and the identification of causal scenarios, created by Professor Nancy Leveson of the Institute of Technology of Massachusetts (MIT). The purpose of this article is to perform a bibliometric and patent analysis of the STPA model. Since bibliometry is an important tool in the analysis of scientific production, this method is used as a descriptive statistic, for the purposes of this study, the concepts of Goffman's Epidemic Theory were highlighted, under a mainly qualitative analysis, for a study of decline and ascent scientific method. For the bibliometric analysis, the main page of Professor Nancy Leveson was used in MIT's Web site, besides the Web of Science, Mendeley, ResearchGate, Village of Engineering and Scientific Electronic Library Online (SciELO). Aiming to cover the patents analysis it was used the Derwent, IHS and Orbit research bases. Defining as search term “Analysis of the Theoretical Process of Systems” and “STPA”, searched in the title, abstract and keywords. A total of 171 publications (1990 to 2017) were found, with 89 specific references of the STPA model (2002 to 2017), addressing several subjects such as: definitions, steps, complements to the model, areas of application and use of the model with another risk analysis tool. At the end of this article are highlighted the main works of the STPA model, tools of support and analysis, serving as base and favoring future works.

ABSTRACT Performance assessment is addressed in the literature as means for continuous improvement. The objective of this study was to identify the most valued performance criteria for a Graduate Program of Biotechnology in a University of Brazil through the Value Focused Thinking (VFT) approach. The choice of the VFT was due to the holistic vision provided by it and the focus on the identification of organizational values. Among the objectives found, it is possible to notice an expansion of the vision of performance that is more focused on publications regarding the regulatory body Coordination of Improvement of Higher Level Personnel (CAPES), and contemplating among others the quality in the student’s training as evidence of other stakeholders. The VFT approach met the established assumptions, efficiently allowing strategic, fundamental and media objectives to be identified, as well as measurable attributes to be used by the program to enable more efficient management.

ABSTRACT: Current Space Launch Vehicles use chemical reactions (solid and liquid propellants) to achieve sufficient thrust to launch artifacts and humans into space. Propulsion technologies can be framed in three different categories: "escape propulsion", "in-space propulsion", and "deep space propulsion". The launch vehicles currently used for "escape propulsion" rely on mature technologies, which experienced only small incremental improvements over the last five decades, and breakthroughs for this kind of propulsion are not foreseen for the next two decades. This research gathered information on the main operational heavy-lift space launch vehicles with capacity over 5,000 kg that are used to reach GEO (Geostationary Earth Orbit) by the United States, Russia, Europe, China, Japan and India and compared their thrust capability. The results show that performance was improved mainly by adding boosters, increasing gross propellant weight, with larger diameter rocket motors and using more efficient liquid propellant pairs. Information regarding the frequency of published scientific articles and patents on Space Vehicles Propulsion Systems since the 1960s was also gathered, which demonstrates some progress in the last years, mainly in USA and Europe. "In-space" and "Deep space" spacecraft were also briefly examined in this article, resuming the main features of some new promising developments, mainly regarding the latter, which present prospects of significant technological advances; however, real progress in interplanetary missions will be possible only when technological breakthroughs towards other propulsion types become possible and feasible. So, two questions motivated the authors: why space propulsion development seems stagnant? Are there prospects for progress?

ABSTRACT: The statistical analysis of academic literature, also known as “bibliometrics”, is being increasingly applied to analyse research trends, to identify emerging areas of science and to find out where and how often specific articles are cited. The aim of this study was to identify technological innovation trend patterns in the aerospace sector applying bibliometric analysis over the period 2008 - 2015. In this study the keywords space technology, satellite, space launch vehicle, spacecraft, rocket and space station were used to scrutinize the database Web of Science (ISI). The obtained records were analysed using the Patent Insight Pro software (2015). It was observed that the researches related to aerospace technological development has been focused in satellites, giving also some directions for satellite launch vehicles. Bibliometric analysis revealed concern on new low-cost technologies development, and the applied logistic fit suggests that over the next five years the continuity on new space technologies development will be mostly related to small satellites, with also contributions associated with high-resolution imagery in order to improve Earth observation in low orbit.

Resumo Análise de risco de terrorismo é um dos maiores desafios enfrentados pelas autoridades que definem a política de alocação de recursos de uma nação. Este artigo provê uma breve revisão de duas abordagens tradicionalmente usadas para esse propósito: Análise de Risco Probabilística e Teoria dos Jogos. Adicionalmente, ele introduz no contexto brasileiro a Análise de Risco Adversário, uma metodologia inovadora que objetica analisar os riscos causados por oponentes inteligentes. Finalmente, uma situação hipotética da Análise de Risco Adversário é apresentada. Os resultados mostram que essa metodologia pode ser utilizada para apoiar decisões sobre a alocação de recursos de defesa no contexto de megaeventos esportivos que são de interesse de diversos países.

Abstract Terrorism risk assessment is one of the biggest challenges that authorities must face to define the defensive resource allocation policy for a country. This article provides a brief review of two approaches that have been traditionally used for this purpose: Probabilistic Risk Assessment and Game Theory. Additionally, it introduces the Adversary Risk Analysis approach to the Brazilian context; an innovative methodology that aims to assess risks caused by intelligent opponents. Finally, an application of Adversarial Risk Analysis in a hypothetical situation is presented. The results show that Adversarial Risk Analysis can be useful to support decisions about defensive resource allocation in contexts such as sports mega events, a reality for many countries around the world.

Resumo A tomada de decisão utilizando informações meteorológicas muitas vezes é um processo complexo, de alto impacto e, em algumas situações, pode comprometer o funcionamento de instalações tecnológicas. Neste contexto, o objetivo deste artigo é apresentar uma abordagem de apoio à decisão em condições de incerteza meteorológica para a proteção das infraestruturas no Centro de Lançamento de Alcântara. A partir de uma demanda operacional, foi desenvolvido um índice meteorológico de modo a identificar a atitude dos decisores em relação às três características da informação meteorológica: a) probabilidade da previsão de tempo; b) prazo de validade; c) valor da variável atmosférica. Como estudo de caso, foi analisado um problema real de decisão para proteção das instalações do principal centro espacial brasileiro. Através da interação com os usuários na construção do índice, foi possível concluir que para probabilidades baixas (< 20%) ou para prazos de validade estendidos (> 24 h), o grupo de usuários entrevistados não utiliza a informação meteorológica para tomar decisões, mesmo com o prognóstico de condições extremas. Os resultados quantitativos demonstraram que o modelo de apoio à decisão proposto conseguiu incorporar a atitude do usuário não-meteorologista em relação à incerteza da informação meteorológica.

Abstract Decision-making using weather information is often a complex and high impact process, and in some situations, can disturb the functioning of technological facilities. In this sense, the aim of this paper is to present a decision support approach for infrastructure protection under weather uncertainty at the Alcântara Launch Center, in Brazil. From an operational demand, a weather index was developed to identify the decision maker's attitude about the three characteristics of meteorological information: a) weather forecast probability; b) lead time of the information; c) value of a meteorological variable. As a case study, we analyzed a real decision-making problem for the protection of an aerospace vehicle and integration tower in the Brazilian space center. Through the development of an index with the users, it was concluded that for low probabilities (< 20%) or extended lead time (> 24 h), the group of users do not use weather information to make decisions, even with a prognosis of extreme conditions. The quantitative results showed that the decision model managed to incorporate the attitude of non-meteorologist users regarding the handling of uncertainty in weather forecasts.

ABSTRACT This article approaches Engineering Requirements concepts and proposes the use of cognitive maps as support to the problem identification of the stakeholders during the requirements elicitation process. It presents a case study of the aerospace cluster of São José dos Campos, State of São Paulo. The cognitive map technique was developed to represent the views of the individuals, generating cognitive maps, which, in an aggregated way, express graphically the collective vision to support the decision-making process. Applied to Engineering Requirements, it has revealed the potential to promote the convergence of different points of view on the actual stakeholders’ needs in innovative fashion. This technique has demonstrated effectiveness when approaching the stated requirements early in the development process implemented throughout the life cycle of the system/product.

ABSTRACT: The meteorological and oceanographic conditions are crucial for the successful launch of aerospace vehicles. However, the decision-making process using environmental information is a complex problem, since it depends on a constant review of current and future weather conditions. To understand this process in the Brazilian Space Program (BSP) context, this paper aims to be the first attempt to map out the systemic view of applied meteorology for the launch missions of aerospace vehicles. Various Brazilian stakeholders were interviewed and their perspectives were analyzed by using a problem structuring method known as Strategic Options Development and Analysis (SODA). With this approach, it was possible to identify different concepts in each group of respondents regarding the current situation of Aerospace Meteorology. One particularly relevant result was identified: weather forecast is not merely a tool to be used to modify the chronology of a mission and to fully provide support in decision-making during the rocket launches in Brazil. Furthermore, the paper shows that the Aerospace Meteorology needs to improve technical processes and to develop a weather decision support system with decision-makers' preferences regarding the uncertainty in weather forecasts. SODA has shown to be a support tool to understand the real situation of meteorology for the launch of aerospace vehicles and appropriate to aid in future planning in the BSP.

Estima-se que somente nos últimos quatro anos cerca de 5 milhões de brasileiros tenham sido atingidos por desastres naturais. Além do prejuízo financeiro, tem-se como principais consequências o impacto social negativo e o elevado número de vítimas fatais, os quais deveriam ser minimizados por intermédio do poder público. Esse último, contudo, mostra-se limitado para tal em decorrência de inúmeros infortúnios que, de modo geral, ainda não foram corretamente detectados. Nessa direção, visando à adequada estruturação da situação problemática em tela, lançou-se mão do método Strategic Options Development and Analysis. A partir de então, foi possível mapear o Sistema de Defesa Civil do Estado de São Paulo, o que viabilizou a identificação de diversos óbices e o estabelecimento de uma compreensão abrangente acerca dele. Com isto, espera-se que os resultados encontrados sirvam como ponto de partida para a realização de futuras pesquisas que visem ao desenvolvimento de soluções para os problemas supracitados.

It is estimated that approximately five million Brazilians have been affected by natural disasters in the past four years. In addition to the financial loss, the major consequences are the negative social impact and the high number of deaths, which should be minimized by Government Agencies. However, the aforementioned Agencies have shown to be partially or completely incapable of properly reacting against these disasters due to numerous mishaps that have not yet been fully identified. To this end, aiming at the adequate structuring of the problematic situation, the method of Strategic Options Development and Analysis has been employed. Through this method, it was possible to map out the Civil Defense System of the state of Sao Paulo, enabling the identification of several obstacles and the establishment of a broad understanding on the matter. Therefore, we expect that our findings may be used as a starting point for future researches aimed at developing solutions to the previously mentioned problems.

Abstract: The increased complexity of organizational contexts in the end of the 20th centurv and beginning of the 21st century has resulted in the increment of the variables number to be considered during a performance evaluation. Therefore, many professionals began to search methods that would enable the simultaneous analvsis of multiple criteria. Thus, this paper has investigated the application of a multicriteria approach to evaluate the performance in the development of subsvstems during the development of complex products, by using the PROMETHEE GDSS and the GAIA methods. To achieve this objective, a study on the ITA-SAT satellite project wasperformed, in which a perception analvsis of the members of the project regarding the development of each subsvstem was carried out. Once these perceptions were captured, the proposed approach was used to identify subsvstems with less satisfactorvperformances. Finally, the results were analyzed and brought to discussion at a meeting with managers and project members with a feedback to the conclusions of this study.

Resumo Atualmente, as empresas têm interesse por adotar novas estratégias metodológicas, colocando em prática a cognição administrativa como ferramenta de crescente interesse para captar a natureza dos seus problemas. O presente trabalho teve como objetivo aplicar o mapa cognitivo como apoio à decisão a partir dos depoimentos extraídos do trabalho abordado por Silva (2008), aplicado a um problema de decisão em grupo da Força Aérea Brasileira (FAB) sobre quais ações adotar como prioritárias, inseridas no contexto entre comprar ou desenvolver tecnologias para o Setor Aeroespacial de Defesa do Brasil. O artigo tem como principal contribuição, a estruturação do problema do setor de Defesa Brasileiro, indicando os critérios mais importantes que devem ser considerados para avaliação das possíveis ações.

Abstract Currently, companies are interested in adopting new methodological strategies, using the administrative cognition as a tool of growing interest for grasping the nature of their problems. The present work aims to apply the cognitive map as decision support based on the statements taken from the work discussed by Silva (2008), applying to the Brazilian Air Force (FAB) group decision problem, about what actions to take as a priority, set in the context of either buying or developing technologies for the aerospace defense of Brazil. The contribution of this paper is a Brazilian defense industry problem structuring defining the relevant criteria that should be considered for the evaluation of possible actions to be taken by the Defense Sector in Brazil.